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Advanced Oil & Gas Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis

Course Description


The petroleum industry is one of the most important, highly capital intensive and risky business. Global exploration and production spending in 2013 was $644 billion, up 7% from $604 billion the year before. In 2014, the exploration budgets reached $654 billion but this fell to $521 billion in 2015 and in the following year, 2016, there was a further decline of 27%. This year’s global exploration and production spending is expected to increase 7%.
The upstream sector’s profit margins are under real pressure from many factors such as higher costs of developing new reserves, less oil and gas found per foot of exploration drilling, rising inflation, global oversupply and price volatility. Competition for investments, for acreage / concessions, aging of existing reservoirs, the of unconventional oil and gas revolution all contribute business risk and uncertainty.
Petroleum industry projects are by their very nature risky, the challenge however is in assessing, managing, and mitigating this risk proactively. The three biggest planning challenges are predicting costs, assessing profitability, and risk management. All these tasks occur in the early stages of capital planning and failure to adequately evaluate these elements can lead to heavy losses.

Who Should Attend?

  • Planning Managers
  • Oil & Gas Engineers
  • Project Managers
  • Analysts
  • Commercial Managers
  • Economists
  • Government Officials
  • Geologists
  • Business Advisors
  • Asset Managers
  • E&P Managers
  • Project Managers
  • Project Management Professionals

Course Outline

Day One: Development Economics
Day One: A brief history of energy usage
Day One: Principles of development economics
Day One: Understanding of economic terms
Day One: Inflation and its impact on nominal & real cashflows
Day One: Project financing
Day Two: Uncertainty in Investments
Day Two: Handling uncertainty in capital projects
Day Two: Understanding probability concepts
Day Two: The expected value concept: features and pitfalls
Day Two: Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
Day Two: Expected Profitability Index (EPI)
Day Two: Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL)
Day Three: Risks and Uncertainties
Day Three: Risk & uncertainty
Day Three: Risk aversion and risk premium
Day Three: Exploration project threats and opportunities
Day Three: Economic decision criteria
Day Three: Decision tree analysis
Day Three: Probability distribution
Day Three: Monte Carlo simulation
Day Four: Setting-up Spreadsheet Calculations Using Excel
Day Four: Spreadsheet Calculations
Day Four: Cashflow analysis
Day Four: Sensitivity analysis calculations
Day Four: Tornado diagrams
Day Four: Introduction to Monte Carlo simulations using @Risk
Day Four: Setting-up an oil field project
Day Five: Practical Use of the @Risk add-on: Oil Field Development Model
Day Five: Developing an integrated economic model of an oil field development
Day Five: Developing and using an @Risk Model Analysis
Day Five: Project sensitivity analysis utilizing data from @Risk Model
Day Five: Training course final review and close

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